Moore's Law: A Department of Defense Perspective

摘要: Overview The past 50 years have seen enormous advances in electronics and the systems that depend upon or exploit them. Department of Defense (DOD) has been an important driver in, a profound beneficiary of, these advances, which come so regularly many observers expect them to continue indefinitely. However, as Jean de la Fontaine said, "In all matters one must consider end." A substantial literature debates ultimate limits progress solid-state they apply current paradigm for silicon integrated circuit (IC) technology. outcome this debate will societal impact because key role ICs play computing, information, sensor technologies. consequences DOD are profound. For example, planning assumptions regarding total situational awareness keyed Moore's Law, predicts doubling transistor density about every 18 months. While prediction proved be accurate more than thirty years, we entering period when industry increasing difficulty sustaining pace. Under device manufacturing paradigm, areas such slow stagnate. If met, science technology program would well advised search aggressively alternate paradigms beyond those on Law is based ensure new capabilities. purpose paper examine prognosis IC from perspective. Current Situation revolution can said begun February 23, 1940, Russell Ohl Bell Laboratories observed anomalous behavior electronic properties cracked crystal. His investigation led discovery what now known pn junction. Ohl's interest was developing better crystal oscillator. He commented managers were not especially interested his work preferred he focus issues related vacuum electronics, where real opportunities perceived lie. Fortunately, Walter Brattain first review discovery. Consequently, undertook produce switch replace tube amplifiers unreliable mechanical relays necessary telephony. This December 1947 by Brattain, John Bardeen, William Shockley. In 1958, Jack Kilby invented demonstrated elemental composed resistors active device. Robert Noyce independently another form planar At point, stage set scientific technical produced tremendous capabilities computers, communications, information experiencing today. 1965, Gordon Moore predicted number devices double 12 (1) log-linear plot complexity over time using just three empirical data points employer, Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation. 1975, revisited topic at Institute Elecrical Electronics Engineers International Electron Devices Meeting. time, (presumably with knowledge attributes metal-oxide semiconductor [MOS] scaling (2) own observations improvements technologies, including economy scale batch processing wafer), revised prediction, stating became Law. …