Integrating heterogeneity of detection and mark loss to estimate survival and transience in UK grey seal colonies

摘要: Summary 1. We present new developments in statistical methodology allowing in-depth analysis of realistic, complex biological models for longitudinal data sets. Important details such as mark-loss and recapture heterogeneity can be identified. 2. We use a Bayesian hidden process framework comparative long-term (1978–2006) capture–recapture with various combinations marking methods adult female grey seals Halichoerus grypus at two UK colonies. 3. Seals were identified using three different methods: flipper tags, brands, or natural pelage markings. Animals by brands markings re-sighted more effectively than those tags. 4. Flipper tag-loss rates differed between colonies, there was evidence non-independent double-tagged animals. There also one colony the presence transient animals, which attend 1 year only. Apparent survival higher consistent site, differences colonies able to explain contrasting pup production trends these sites. 5. Synthesis applications. Longitudinal studies allow estimation demographic parameters have important implications our understanding population dynamics conservation management populations. Using missing/incomplete partial observations, we show how estimated from mark–recapture data, effects mark loss. The re-sightability marks is estimated, indicating that photo-ID based on very effective method identifying seals. are notable contrasts estimates breeding sites, confirming importance driving this long-lived species.