Environment‐sensitive mass changes influence breeding frequency in a capital breeding marine top predator

摘要: The trade-off between survival and reproduction in resource-limited iteroparous animals can result some individuals missing breeding opportunities. In practice, even with the best observation regimes, deciding whether 'missed' years represent real pauses or failures to detect be difficult, posing problems for estimation of individual reproductive output overall population fecundity. We corrected fecundity estimates by determining had occurred skipped years, using long-term capture-recapture datasets parallel longitudinal mass measurements, based on informative underlying relationships individuals' mass, status environmental drivers a capital phocid, grey seal. Bayesian modelling considered interacting processes jointly: temporal changes phenotypic covariate (mass); relationship probability; effects maternal state mark type resighting. Full histories were imputed, unobserved estimated as non-breeding, accounting local variation. Overall was then derived Scottish colonies contrasting pup production trends. Maternal affected likelihood. Mothers low body at end less likely bear following year. Successive episodes incurred cost reduced which more pronounced North Rona, Outer Hebrides (NR) mothers. Skipping increased subsequent pupping probability substantially females. Poor conditions associated declines both colonies. Seal gain seasons (a) negatively lagged Atlantic Oscillation seals NR (b) positively an index seal prey (Ammodytes spp) abundance Isle May, Firth Forth (IM). marginally greater IM (increasing/stable production) than (decreasing). No detected survival. female appears mass-dependent constraint moderated previous conditions. Different demographic trends consistent fecundities this method, is general adaptable other situations.