A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe. The case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

摘要: Abstract We analyzed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and Eurasian otter occurrence southern Italy over course of approximately 20 years (1985–2006) using multi-temporal species distribution models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most otter's Italian range. Land topographic data were used as proxies for ecological requirements within a 300-m buffer around courses. presence, pseudo-absence data, environmental predictors to build past (1985) current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through BIOMOD modeling package. performance each model was evaluated measuring under curve (AUC) receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analysis performed comparing maps produced 1985 2006. provided good overall accuracy, revealing that elevation slope affected past; contrast, predictors, such cultivations forests, more important present period. During transition period, 20.5% became suitable, with 76% new presence being located these newly available areas. suggested quality habitat improved due expansion forests reduction cultivated fields riparian belts. This evidence stresses great potential riverine restoration management supporting future Italy.