Projection of red spruce (Picea rubens Sargent) habitat suitability and distribution in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

摘要: Abstract Red spruce ( Picea rubens Sargent) has exhibited widespread growth decline and high mortality for the last half century in eastern United States. Good prediction of this species’ distribution relation to environmental conditions is critical effective management. This study projects red response multiple causal mechanisms Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) Southern Appalachian by coupling a temporal simulation model tree (ARIM.SIM) species (ARIM.HAB). ARIM.HAB computed habitat suitability, estimated from ARIM.SIM-generated growth, every spatial 30 m grid cell GSMNP. ARIM.SIM showed that different factors were responsible suitability at higher vs. lower elevations. The air pollution variables (acid rain cloud immersion frequency) caused low elevations (1800–2028 m). Reduced but greater stress climatic (high temperatures, reduced precipitation) medium (1400–1600 m). And less climate combined with ample water produce highest intermediate (1600–1800 m). projected range was verified an existing geospatial database excellent correspondence present-day (AUC = 0.99, kappa = 0.87 TSS = 0.88). research shows models coupled process-based can improve precision accuracy of, respectively, projections local scales.