Historical trends and future distribution of anchovy spawning in the Bay of Biscay

作者: Maite Erauskin-Extramiana , Paula Alvarez , Haritz Arrizabalaga , Leire Ibaibarriaga , Andrés Uriarte

DOI: 10.1016/J.DSR2.2018.07.007

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摘要: Abstract Future scenarios of fish stocks and the impacts climate variability change on fisheries are critical to anticipate minimize potential economic losses in this sector. In study, we assessed impact recent sea warming future anchovy Bay Biscay, where surface temperature has increased last three decades. We analyzed historical evolution spawning built species distribution models that projected under RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis showed peak advanced at a rate 5.5 days/decade from 1987 2015, gonadosomatic index (as proxy activity) generally increased, which might be associated changes phytoplankton abundance. addition, area expanded contracted depending total egg production. future, overall abundance Biscay is expected increase between 1.05 2.66-fold scenario by mid end-of-the-21st-century, respectively. Projected environmental induce an expansion (7.8% 16.4% for mid- end-of-the-century) higher densities.

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