Analysis of a scanning model of worm propagation

摘要: The traditional approach to modeling of internet worm propagation is adopt a mathematical model, usually inspired by the spread infectious diseases, describing expected number hosts infected as function time since start infection. predictions such model are then used evaluate, improve, or develop defense and containment strategies against worms. However, proper complete understanding goes well beyond formula given chosen for at time. Thus, questions fitting assessing extent which specific realization may differ from model’s predictions, behavior points infections occur, estimation effects misspecification parameters must also be considered. In this paper, we address well-known random constant (RCS) propagation. We first generalize RCS our nonhomogeneous scanning (NHRS) model. NHRS allows worm’s contact rate vary during it thus captures far more situations interest than assumes in consider problem these models empirical data give simulation procedure epidemic. show how obtain confidence interval unknown addition, use prior information about discussed. results methodologies paper illuminate structure application