Calibration and validation of a model of forest disturbancein the Western Ghats, India 1920–1990

摘要: This paper introduces a new statistical method that we recommend should become standard procedure to quantify the goodness-of-fit of calibration and validation for land-use change models. We present multiple-resolution Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) measures between reference map, which is considered reality, simulated model’s output. proposed ROC based on: (1) multiple-resolutions, (2) soft classification, (3) sampling without replacement, 4) explicit separation factors quantity versus location change. illustrate with case study in India’s Western Ghats, biodiversity hotspot, where have maps cumulative forest disturbance 1920 1990. use predictive modeling approach similar GEOMOD calibrate model map 1920, then predict 1990, at point subject validation. show fit tends be much larger than Thus if modeler assess by only, will likely over confident ability.