Assessing impact of forest cover change dynamics on high nature value farmland in Mediterranean mountain landscape

摘要: A general trend of scrub encroachment and natural forest expansion (old-field succession) has been occurring in the past fifty years Mediterranean mountain areas. While this phenomenon enhances a series ecological processes environmental services, it may represent threat for biodiversity conservation when on high nature value (HNV) extensive farmland. These open areas, created by traditional farming systems, have recognized as critically important European resource. Understanding drivers Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) their implications dynamics HNV farmland habitats plays crucial role protected In perspective, case study here presented aims to model recent (1989-2008) LUCC National Park Central Apennines (Italy) produce mid-term forecast (2008-2020). twenty years, 57% land uptake shrubland 46% former Mid-term projections (2008-2020) confirm further decline. Localization vulnerable change is valuable decision-making tool tradeoff areas landscapes with increase concrete socio-economical silvicultural measures are outlined preserve these socially economically-fragile habitats.