Preface: integrating historical ecology and ecological modeling

摘要: There is increasing consensus that not only the present structure and functioning of ecosystems, but also their response to environmental stressors management practices partly a legacy system’s history (Rhemtulla Mladenoff 2007). Similarly, there little dispute in order assess future trajectories models some sort need be employed (e.g., Shugart 1998). Thus, clear interface between scientific attempts elucidate past ecosystems (historical ecology) project dynamics (ecological modeling). However, date this has received relatively attention research (cf. Anderson et al. 2006). On one hand, historical ecological usually aims at uncovering ecosystem drivers, using combining large variety data sources (Egan Howell 2001). A comprehensive understanding anthropogenic impacts on crucial for accurate interpretation current states, it forms baseline predictions development, more informed (Burgi Gimmi Historical ecologists therefore tend emphasize importance other fields such as modeling, they preferably place statements outlook sections papers, often without concept how integration should achieved. many modeling studies state fate are assumptions regarding states much than guesswork because lack consideration. case point assumption carbon cycle, topic eminent scientific, practical political relevance, storage equilibrium with an assumed constant climate Wolf 2012, others). Under most conditions, however, both highly questionable, acceptable reliable accessible conditions absent. Indeed, quest appropriate set up realistic ‘‘spin-up’’ runs futile, hardly ever collected made available target variables mind, unless close collaboration sought modelers 2009). Still, view ecology mainly source ‘useful’ while underestimate U. (&) Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute Forest, Snow WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland e-mail: urs.gimmi@wsl.ch