Drivers of grassland loss in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation (1987–1999)

摘要: The increase in the speed of land-cover change experienced worldwide is becoming a growing concern. Major socio-economic transitions, such as breakdown socialism Europe, may lead to particularly high rates landscape transformations. In this paper we examined loss semi-natural grasslands Hungary between 1987 and 1999. We studied relationship 9 potential driving forces fate using logistic GLMs. Grassland was found be very (1.31 % per year), which far higher than either before or after period. most influential predictors grassland were environmental characteristics (soil type, area remnant patches), context (distance paved road, nearest settlement, human population density). Several processes relationships can only understood from historical perspective (e.g. large extent afforestation, strong decrease soil water table). during study period emerged consequence survival strategies individual farmers seeking adaptation changing conditions, not urbanization agricultural intensification are main underlying drivers for ongoing transformations parts developed world. Though globalization increasingly influences local land use decisions, reconstructing modelling recent changes cannot done without proper understanding history culture. Our analysis shows importance large-area yet resolution research, reveal unexpected patterns cover change, undetected at coarser scales.