From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

摘要: Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease reliability this type analysis. In present study, we performed whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which thoroughly explored consequences uncertainty processes parameters on predictions. First, estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, bibliographic data from period 1990-2009 12 populations found throughout studied geographic range. Second, evaluated about model structure (i.e., assumed that govern individual fates dynamics) by comparing observed growth with same period. Third, structures suggested previous step, assessed both local overall population. Finally, analyzed effects parameter Our results strongly support idea all Europe belong single, spatially structured operating as source- sink system, whereby south Iberian Peninsula act sources and, thanks dispersal, sustain other populations, would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding dynamics varied considerably, models assuming more constrained predicted pessimistic trends than greater dispersal. Model accounting revealed marked increase risk declines over next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated adult pre-adult survival are chief regulating these thus, efforts aimed at improving should be strengthened order guarantee long-term species. Overall, study provides framework implementation multi-site PVAs highlights importance shaping long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.