Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology

摘要: Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and compare alternative options their management. It can also be used as a basis listing endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because lack validation real systems. Here we conducted retrospective test PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive replicated evaluation powers PVA. Parameters were estimated from half each data set second was evaluate performance model. Contrary recent criticisms, found that predictions surprisingly accurate. The risk population decline closely matched observed outcomes, no significant bias, size projections did not differ significantly reality. Furthermore, five software packages highly concordant. We conclude valid sufficiently accurate tool categorizing managing species.