Effects of Social Structure and Prey Dynamics on Extinction Risk in Gray Wolves

摘要: Extinction models based on diffusion theory generally fail to incorporate two important aspects of population biology-social structure and prey dynamics. We include these in an individual-based ex- tinction modelfor small, isolated populations the gray wolf (Canis lupus). Our model predicts mean times extinction significantly longer than those predicted by more general (diffusion) models. According our model, 50 wolves has a 95% chance surviving just 9 years only 30% beyond 100 years. Reflecting influence social structure, wolfpopulation initially compris- ing individuals is expected persist few longer, average (71 years), comprising single reproductive pair (62 years). In contrast, substantially greater abundance leads dramatically persistence times. Autocorrelated dynamics result complex distribution many contend that de- mographic stochasticity may pose greatest threat populations, although environ- mental genetic effects compound this threat. work highlights importance considering resource development viability analyses.