A meta‐population model to predict occurrence and recovery of wolves

摘要: Wolves (Canis lupis) have been recolonizing Washington since 2008. In an effort to guide recovery and management decisions for wolves, we created a spatially explicit meta-population matrix model using vital rates based on empirical data from other states in the northwestern United States estimate probability of occurrence, terminal extinction rates, potential time. We applied existing habitat Idaho, Montana, Wyoming landscape determine extent probable habitat. then simulated evenly distributed metapopulation average size pack territories reported central Idaho where occurrence exceeded 40%. Using program RAMAS GIS, female-only, stage with dispersal population metrics Montana. Model simulations that begin 2009 suggest should reach its goals approximately 12 years (2021). used project timeframes risk declining below objectives if scenarios are considered during recovery. This is also intended be versatile adaptive tool managers carrying capacity minimum viable future when locally derived become available as wolves recolonize Washington. The framework can easily adapted (Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming) or countries it provide way identify thresholds (quasi-extinction) areas no currently available. © 2015 Authors. Journal Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. behalf Society.