Flawed population viability analysis can result in misleading population assessment: A case study for wolves in Algonquin park, Canada

摘要: Abstract For many populations and species, population viability analysis (PVA) plays a critical role in developing defensible conservation strategies recovery plans. Although technical aspects of PVA have been well scrutinized, misapplication misinterpretation its results received less attention. To illustrate potential hazards improper use we reanalyzed data from recent study on wolves Algonquin Provincial Park (APP), Ontario, Canada. The original predicted extirpation APP prompted both ban wolf harvesting 10–16 km buffer zone surrounding the 7571 km 2 park an intensive research program to evaluate efficacy ban. Our reanalysis showed that limited imprecise density demographic rate estimates, as flawed assessment reconstruction methods, led overly pessimistic evaluation status APP. In fact, our analyses suggest are unlikely decline significantly over next 20 years. Further, contrary earlier conclusions rapid following protection human exploitation would be likely readily detectable. These findings highlight need for adequate data, appropriate methodology, proper analytical context when conducting PVA. Because substantial redirection staff financial resources other significant initiatives, conclude may undermine execution effective wildlife management ultimately provide disservice biology.