Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models

摘要: Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several critical parts their life history may be difficult to observe in field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for first time is not always obvious. This can problematic because uncertainty about transition from a prebreeder breeder state – recruitment leads vital rate estimates and turn population projection models. To avoid this issue, common practice discard imperfect data analyses. However, generate bias if related specific component reduces sample size dataset consequently statistical power detect effects biological interest. Here, we compared demographic parameters assessed standard multistate capture–recapture approach obtained newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts assessment. Using comprehensive longitudinal on southern elephant seals, demonstrated model enabled us use all collected (6639 histories vs. 4179 model) by accounting breeding states, thereby increasing precision accuracy parameter estimates. The allowed incorporate into gain has important implications conservation management species limiting around rates will permit predicting viability greater accuracy.