Population Extinction Probabilities and Methods of Estimation for Population Stochastic Differential Equation Models

摘要: The basic population growth models in a randomly fluctuating environment are the stochastic differential equations dlnN/dt=r (Maithusian), dlnN/dt=r(1-N/K) (K > o; logistic), and (lnK -lnN) Gompertz), where N = N(t) is size at time t r r(t) ro + σ ɛ(t) (σ o) random process with “standard” white noise. A reference to “colored” noise also made. In applications real populations we need parameter estimates based on usually available discrete observations of single realization. This paper gives moment ML estimators. It probability dropping below an extinction threshold within given time. These results can be applied fisheries environmental impact assessment.