Ecological Interactions, Social Organization, and Extinction Risk in African Wild Dogs

摘要: The conservation of wild dogs depends on the persistence small populations because African dog ( Lycaon pictus ) are low in density, limited by range loss, and often restricted to parks containing fewer than 100 adults. Although major limiting factors for have been identified, including interspecific competition diseases, such not translated into extinc- tion risk. To assess extinction risks, we used individual-based simulations constructed from data a 6-year field study Selous Game Reserve, Tanzania. Our predicted that risk was extremely sensitive with lions. Extinction rates periods as short 20 years) rose sharply near 1.0 when lion exceeded moderate densities (approximately 110- 140 lions/1000 km 2 ). This prediction is remarkably consistent with, highlights, ecological processes may be responsible recent patterns among populations. Infectious diseases kill adults, rabies, also reduced population if they increased mortality $ 0.3 occurred at average intervals # 10 years. In contrast, killing only pups, canine parvovirus, had weaker effects persistence. declined mean litter sizes 6, unaffected increasing size above its normal (i.e., 8-12 Selous). Increasing pack typical levels risk, but reproductive suppression set an upper limit size. 20- 100-year time frames appreciable many realistic ecolog- ical demographic conditions, even immigration substantially probabili- ties. Active management mitigate competition, facilitate dispersal popula- tions, or augment appears essential conservation.