Moving Forward with Incorporating “Catastrophic” Climate Change into Policy Analysis

摘要: It has often been stated that current studies aimed at understanding the magnitude of optimal climate policy fail to adequately capture potential for “catastrophic” impacts change. While economic modeling exercises date do provide evidence catastrophes might significantly influence path abatement, there is a need move beyond experiments which are abstracted from important details problem in order substantively inform debate. This paper provides foundation improving large scale change understand their on estimates socially efficient policy. We begin by considering how term “catastrophic impacts” used scientific literature describe changes system and carefully review characteristics events have discussed this context. contrast those findings with way modeled human welfare nature. find uniform typically such along failure differences end points timescales examined natural science resulted not resemble concern. Based finding our we forward better incorporating these into integrated assessment modeling, identifying areas where could be improved even within frameworks others additional work needed.