Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level: a sensitivity analysis

摘要: This report examines the implications of large rises in sea level, both over 21st century and beyond. Using GIS methods, an exposure analysis assesses land area, existing population economic activity situated within 10-m present levels – these areas are not threatened century, but looking further into future may be if deglaciation Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurs. The results emphasise high impact potential any rise level. Regionally, most is North America Central Asia, with much being relatively unpopulated Arctic coastlines. In terms population, East South Asia dominate due to their populated delta areas. activity, Europe dominate, although this distribution likely change during century. FUND model, assessment also conducted for level up 2-m/century a range socio-economic scenarios. considers impacts assuming economically-optimum protection responses, so actual less than would suggest, investment required. While costs sea-level increase greater damage costs, optimum response benefit-cost sense remains widespread developed coastal areas, as identified earlier analyses. scenarios important influencing costs. four components considered here, seems substantial from wetland loss under some regional shows few regions experience especially America, Europe, America. However, there limitations which suggest that suggested analysis. Nonetheless, suggests more rational widely assumed, even conclusion, confirms significant exists rise, stresses human responses including changes. Assuming protection, diverted other uses. Much research refine our understanding issues.