Epidemiological features and time-series analysis of influenza incidence in urban and rural areas of Shenyang, China, 2010-2018.

摘要: In recent years, there have been a significant influenza activity and emerging strains in China, resulting an increasing number of virus infections leading to public health concerns. The aims this study were identify the epidemiological aetiological characteristics establish seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models for forecasting percentage visits influenza-like illness (ILI%) urban rural areas Shenyang. Influenza surveillance data obtained ILI cases positivity from 18 sentinel hospitals. SARIMA constructed predict ILI% January-December 2019. During 2010-2018, was higher than areas. age distribution showed highest rate young children aged 0-4 years. Seasonal A/H3N2, B pandemic A/H1N1 continuously co-circulated winter spring seasons. addition, (0, 1, 0) 2)12 model area (1, 1) 0)12 appropriate predicting incidence. Our findings suggested that regional distinctions A co-epidemic pattern evident terms activity. Young more susceptible infection adults. These results provide reference future prevention control strategies area.