A framework for developing high‐resolution multi‐model climate projections: 21st century scenarios for the UK

摘要: This article proposes a framework for building climate projections from an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs) at the local scale required impact studies. The proposed method relies on fine-scale gridded baseline climatology and consists following steps: (1) appropriate precipitation temperature time series land areas covered by GCM sea cells; (2) correction outputs inherent biases through ‘quantile-based mapping’; (3) disaggregation bias-corrected with monthly spatial anomalies between GCM-specific observed scales. overall is applied to derive 21st century seasonal inter-annual variability UK based six GCMs run under two different emissions scenarios. Results show large dispersion changes within multi-GCM ensemble, along good comparison scenarios individual members previous European studies using dynamically downscaled corresponding GCMs. presented in this provides take account uncertainty model configuration impacts that are influencing current decisions major investments flood risk management water resources. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society