From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

摘要: [1] The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles models are increasingly available either as opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing wealth additional data that is potentially useful for improving strategies to change. Because the novelty this ensemble information, there little previous experience practical applications added value information decision making. This paper evaluates understanding planning public water supply under We deliberately select resource already used by companies regulators assumption uptake from large will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools methods. illustrate methods with case study Wimbleball zone southwest England. sufficiently simple demonstrate utility approach but enough complexity allow variety decisions made. Our research shows contained model provides better possible ranges conditions, compared use single-model Furthermore, careful presentation, makers find results accessible able easily compare merits management options timing adaptation. The overhead time expertise carrying out analysis justified increased quality decision-making process. remark even though we focused our system United Kingdom, conclusions about guiding can generalized other sectors geographical regions.