Future oil production in Brazil—Estimates based on a Hubbert model

摘要: This paper forecasts oil production in Brazil, according to the Hubbert model and different probabilities for adding reserves. It analyzes why might be more appropriate Brazilian industry than that of Hotelling, as it implicitly emphasizes impacts information depletion on derivative over time accumulated discoveries. Brazil's curves indicate peaks with a lag 15 years, depending certainty (degree information) associated Reserves 75% peak at 3.27 Mbpd 2020, while reserves 50% 3.28 2028, 30% 3.88 2036. These findings show Brazil is stage where positive expanding (mainly through discoveries) may outstrip negative depletion. The still limited number wells drilled by discoveries also explain this assertion. Being characteristic frontier areas such indicates need ongoing exploratory efforts.