Key determinants of global land-use projections
作者： Elke Stehfest , Willem-Jan van Zeist , Hugo Valin , Petr Havlik , Alexander Popp
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-09945-W
关键词:
摘要: Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how land depends six distinct drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, regulation, trade) interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities long-term representations regulation trade, calling for reconciliation efforts more empirical research. Most influential determinants cropland pasture extent are population efficiency. Furthermore, changes can play key role reducing both food-security risks, need be central elements strategies.
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