Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change

摘要: Most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets objectives or attempts to explain past successes failures. We argue that an “applied forward reasoning” approach is better suited for scientists seeking address change, which we characterize as a “super wicked” problem comprising four key features: time running out; those who cause also seek provide solution; central authority needed it weak non-existent; and, partly result, responses discount future irrationally. These features combine create policy-making “tragedy” where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped identify solutions, even when well recognized actions must take place soon avoid catastrophic impacts. To overcome this tragedy, greater attention be given generation path-dependent interventions can “constrain our collective selves.” Three diagnostic questions result orient analysis toward understanding how trigger sticky that, through progressive incremental trajectories, entrench support over while expanding populations they cover. Drawing especially from literature path dependency, inverting develop going forward, illustrate plausibility framework identifying new areas research ways think about super wicked problems.