Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry
作者： Robin T Clark , Philip E Bett , Hazel E Thornton , Adam A Scaife
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摘要: We assess the utility of seasonal forecasts for energy industry by showing how recently-established predictability North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter allows near-surface wind speed and air temperature therefore supply demand respectively. Our prediction system (GloSea5) successfully reproduces influence NAO on European climate, leading to skilful power hence driven supply. Temperature is skilfully forecast using observed temperature-NAO relationship forecast. Using correlation between GB electricity demand, we demonstrate that predictions are also achievable timescales well advance season. Finally, good reliability probabilistic above/below-average demonstrated.
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sci-hub.se 参考文章(59)
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