Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate

摘要: Background insect herbivory, in addition to outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour herbivores, we use dynamic ecosystem model investigate impacts background herbivory vegetation growth and productivity, as well distribution associated changes terrestrial ecosystems northern Europe. We used GUESS modelling framework simple linear for including leaf area loss Betula pubescens relation mean July temperature. tested sensitivity responses simulated different, but realistic, degrees damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely enhance potential vegetation. The strongest eastern areas, where damage B. increase by 4–5%. results reduction total birch (LAI), biomass productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than alone would suggest, due its second order competition between model's demonstration that cause structure suggests damage, generally neglected models, change predictions future forest composition. Carbon fluxes albedo only slightly influenced indicating minor importance estimating feedback change.