Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

摘要: The regional manifestation of climate change projections for Europe consistently indicates a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern and an increase northern Europe. However, individual models substantially modulate these overarching signals. Despite considerable model improvements as well increasingly higher resolutions downscaling efforts, apparent inconsistencies so far seem unresolved. In the present study, we analyze European seasonal temperature using all readily available pan-European twenty-first century with increasing from ∼50 km to ∼12 grid distances CORDEX modelling project. This allows in-depth understanding what may be most robust projection climate. Employing simple scaling global mean enables identification emerging signals changes precipitation. Likewise, "what-if" approach, i.e., analysing signal transient experiments at time exceedance e.g. 1, 2 or 3 degrees offers policy relevant approach provide more accurate projections. Comparing two approaches has never been done comprehensive manner is subject paper.