Impact of global warming on permafrost conditions in a coupled GCM

摘要: [1] A climate change scenario experiment conducted with the state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 is analysed objective to quantify changes in present-day Arctic permafrost conditions. An efficient procedure adopted which overcomes many problems associated an explicit treatment of soil freezing and thawing processes. The zero degree temperatures as well induced index characteristics simulated by for present day conditions match observed zonation. For a future greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A2 issued IPCC), we estimate amounts that zones moves poleward how thickness active layer deepens response global warming end 21st century. simulation indicates 30–40% increase active-layer most area Northern Hemisphere, largest relative increases concentrated northernmost locations.