Increased mortality is predicted of Inachis io larvae caused by Bt-maize pollen in European farmland

摘要: A potential environmental risk of the field cultivation insect-resistant (Bt-toxin expressing) transgenic maize (Zea mays) is consumption Bt-containing pollen by herbivorous larvae butterflies (Lepidoptera). Maize wind-pollinated, and at flowering time large amounts can be deposited on various plants growing in landscape, leading to inadvertent ingestion toxic with plant biomass consumed these butterfly larvae. To examine possible effect this coincidence, we focused our study protected Inachis io two regions Europe. Using climatic records, phenology data, built a simulation model butterfly's annual life cycle, overlaid deposition leaves food Urtica dioica, linked dose–response curve I. Bt-maize (event MON810). The simulations indicated that Northern Europe, where univoltine, would not present same as However, Central Southern bivoltine, second generation coincide, an increased mortality was predicted. This prediction differs from earlier studies which predicted negligible field-grown Our improvement over previous efforts since it based more detailed, empirical includes biological detail, provides explicit estimation all parameters. open-source software available for re-use modelling effects other species or regions.