ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY, COLONIZATION, AND LOCAL EXTINCTION WHEN A SPECIES IS DETECTED IMPERFECTLY

摘要: Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always detected when present. Failing allow for the possibility a target was present, but undetected, at site lead biased estimates of occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. These population vital rates often interest in long-term monitoring programs metapopulation studies. We present model enables direct estimation these parameters probability detecting is less than 1. The does not require any assumptions process stationarity, as do some previous methods, detection/nondetection data collected manner similar Pollock's robust design used mark-recapture Via simulation, we show provides good most scenarios considered. illustrate method with from Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occiden- talis caurina) northern California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum) Min- nesota, USA.