Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods

摘要: In this paper, a bivariate-heuristic model (modified Stevenson’s method) and two multivariate statistical procedures (discriminant analysis logistic regression) were used in order to assess map landslide susceptibility the north-western side of Daunia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The whole is characterized by complex composite landslides, which are located on clayey slopes, near urban centers, affecting structures infrastructures. high predisposition landsliding hillslopes related very poor strength properties formations. comparative using different methods, same test site with inventory allowed understanding dependence results from dataset capability models under levels use, expert simple operator. By comparing performance three through success rate curves, it emerges that modified method produces reliable outcomes, comparable those deriving more models. This result characteristics occurrence so much controlled formations large set morphometric, geological land-use variables be somehow superfluous. suggests that, for simple, easy-to-manage based opinion can results.