Blocking and its Response to Climate Change

摘要: Purpose of Review Atmospheric blocking events represent some the most high-impact weather patterns in mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern future climate projections. There has low confidence predicted changes blocking, despite relatively good agreement between models on decline blocking. This is due to lack comprehensive theory and pervasive underestimation occurrence bymodels. paper reviews state knowledge regarding under change, with aim providing an overview those working related fields. Recent Findings Several avenues identified by which can be improved numerical models, though fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond few days lead time). Models are therefore starting provide useful information how its impacts may change future, although deeper understanding processes at play will needed increase model still major uncertainties important onset, maintenance decay advances our atmospheric dynamics, example role diabatic processes, continue inform modelling prediction efforts. Summary The term ‘blocking’ covers diverse array synoptic patterns, hence bewildering range indices developed identify events. Results not considered trustworthy until found using several different methods. Examples such robust results overall occurrence, albeit complex regional seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends over recent historical period supported methods, natural variability likely dominate variations next decades.