Current and future effectiveness of Natura 2000 network in the central Alps for the conservation of mountain forest owl species in a warming climate

摘要: Climate change is causing range shifts in many species, and impacts are predicted to be highest mountain regions. The effectiveness of protected areas preserving suitable habitats for target species the face climate particularly concerning, as sites may lose conditions those species. We investigate potential effect temperature increase on regional distribution pygmy boreal owl, forest specialists Italian Alps, relative Natura 2000 network at level. modelled current future distributions by MaxEnt, relating occurrence land cover, considering climates (changes 2050 representative concentration pathways +4.5 +8.5 W/m2). both affected variables availability coniferous forests, a few other habitat types (such grassland, bare soil, broadleaved forest, mixed forest). two will undergo significant reduction, more marked owl (52–54 %) than (23–34 %). Although covers (and cover also future) 30 % 64 now alternative scenarios not included any Site Community Importance or Special Protection Areas (SPAs). Those ideal candidate new SPAs. Network enlargement adequate management outside required conservation forest-specialist warmer future.