作者: Mattia Brambilla , Paolo Pedrini , Antonio Rolando , Dan E. Chamberlain
DOI: 10.1111/JBI.12796
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摘要: Aim To assess the extent of possible future conflict between skiing and biodiversity driven by climate change, human adaptation species' distribution shifts. Location Italian Alps. Methods We assessed predicting locations likely to be suitable for both high-elevation birds in Italian Alps modelling ski-piste species presence relation climate, topography habitat. Potential was comparing overlap areas projected as those four bird under different scenarios change year 2050. Results Areas ski-pistes were contract towards upper elevations, which resulted an average decrease 58–67% area. The degree increase, especially most valuable sites, that is, hosting species, or threatened species. Main conclusions Given alarming range contractions forecast potential impact on it is essential safeguard high-mountain grasslands against negative effects ski development. An effective conservation strategy at a landscape scale needs consider prevention construction sites high value. approach developed here provides means such could formulated, potentially applied elsewhere investigate effect biodiversity.