Future change of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events

摘要: For reasons of planning and prevention reliable information on the anticipated climate change is very important. Present day global models (GCMs) are able to simulate conditions continental scale with a satisfying accuracy. Still, decisions regional level community or district cannot be facilitated by those GCMs because their rather coarse resolution. this purpose (RCMs) required. Usually, these RCMs driven at boundaries region physical processes in limited area higher resolution than GCMs. The simulation results enable investigate impact level. Thus, they valuable tool for decision makers. An important task future policy scope related frequency occurrence intensity extreme events since strong often have high potential damages large society. In study we focus heavy precipitation south-west Germany. To describe statistically theoretical distribution fitted data. adjust data use method L-moments (Hosking Wallis, 1997) as an alternative conventional moments. From quantile functions can inferred. return period T event magnitude so that has probability 1/T being exceeded any single event. instance, associated 10 50 year chance 10% 2% occur within one year.