Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models

摘要: [1] An analysis of the climate precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from same ensemble global integrations for present (1961–1990) (2071–2100) under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values daily totals estimated extreme value analysis. An evaluation RCMs against observations Alpine region shows that biases comparable or even smaller than those wet day intensity mean precipitation. In winter, tend increase north about 45°N, while there an insignificant change a decrease south. northern Europe 20-year corresponds 40- 100-year climate. There good agreement RCMs, similar scaling present-day average events. contrast, large summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly scenario uncertainty. well explained frequency process, but all models, more less would be expected extremes. evidence component affects specifically consistent despite variation total response.