Applying Geostatistical Analysis to Crime Data: Car-Related Thefts in the Baltic States

摘要: Geostatistical methods have rarely been applied to area-level offense data. This article demonstrates their potential for improving the interpretation and understanding of crime patterns using previously analyzed data about car-related thefts Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in 2000. The variogram is used inform scales variation offense, social, economic Area-to-area area-to-point Poisson kriging are filter noise caused by small number problem. latter also produce continuous maps estimated risk (expected crimes per 10,000 habitants), thereby reducing visual bias large spatial units. In seeking detect most likely clusters, uncertainty attached estimates handled through a local cluster analysis stochastic simulation. Factorial estimate local- regional-scale components explanatory variables. Then regression modeling determine which factors associated with theft at different scales.