A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile

摘要: Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those both vulnerable to threatening processes and if lost or degraded, will result in targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding patterns biodiversity, less given determining areas most threats. We assessed relative vulnerability remaining native forest conversion plantations ecologically significant temperate rainforest region south central Chile. The area study 4.2 million ha extent approximately 200000 ha. First, spatial distribution was determined. variables related this process were identified through development a classification tree generation multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. model explained 43% deviance discrimination ability high. Predictions made where likely occur future. Due climate, topography, soils proximity infrastructure towns, differ their risk converted plantations. Another factor may increase subset proposed construction highway. found 90% existing within 2.5 km roads. When predictions recalculated accounting highway, it that: 27000 had an increased probability conversion. outside reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.