Track surveys do not provide accurate or precise lion density estimates in serengeti

摘要: Abstract More than 60% of the world's large carnivore species are threatened with extinction. Enumerating abundance is critical for assessing their conservation status in response to anthropogenic threats and environmental stochasticity. Track surveys commonly used estimate density species, including lions (Panthera leo), but suitability estimating has been challenged. Recently developed regression models track African carnivores offer improvements over previous estimators have not independently validated. We conducted weekly southeastern Serengeti National Park during 2015–2016 applied one these recent models, comparing corresponding lion densities an independent 2015 derived from a repeated call-in survey same season. surveyed 3289 km tracks total overall 41.2 (95% confidence limits [CL] = 31.9–57.9)/100 km2 34.6 (26.8–46.0)/100 km2 2016. Within year point estimates varied up 56% among weeks, though 95% CLs overlapped. Overall annual did overlap credible interval using (14.36 lions/100 km2; CrI = 9.04–29.31), suggesting overestimation 2015. High between-year among-week variation suggests that use roads movement time other factors (e.g., prey distribution, luminosity) influenced movements road distributions. recommend caution when applying current methods support application designs include direct observation surveys), account imperfect detection spatially-explicit framework, incorporate variables prey, land cover) can influence space movements.