Surrogate Climate Change Scenario and Projections with a Regional Climate Model: Impact on the Aridity in South America

摘要: The impact of global warming on the aridity in South America (SA) is investigated. For this purpose, methodology for generating surrogate climate-change scenarios with a RCM employed. For present climate (CTRL) is initialized and driven by ECMWF/ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Two aridity indices are used: Budyko UNEP indices. The results CTR are in agreement other model studies which indicate future warming; rainfall increases southeastern America, Ecuador Peru and decreases central eastern Amazon. In general reproduces aridity in continent compared observed data both The distribution over SA climate-change scenario shows an increase dryness continent. Over Amazonia increases 23.9% (for index) 3.1% index), suggesting that portions forest replaced dry land area. semi-arid zone northeast Brazil expands westward, attaining interior north Brazil. region 20% 0.6% (for indicating that areas humid regime may be occupied by areas regime. was also integrated AOGCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM reference (CTRL2) under A1B SRES scenario. The present-day similar CTRL2 CTRL, CRU distribution present climate seems to better represented CTRL using indices. The changes (future minus control) higher run forced scenario. Although indices show potentialities limitations represent SA, the due pseudo-scenario higher using index.