Dynamics of the Oil Transition: Modeling Capacity, Costs, and Emissions

摘要: The global petroleum system is undergoing an “oil transition,” shifting from conventionally produced to a suite of substitutes for conventional (SCPs). This paper describes the Regional Optimization Model Emissions Oil Substitutes, or ROMEO, which models this oil transition. ROMEO dynamics transition and environmental impacts (greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity) such It liquid fuel market in optimization framework. mechanism operates differently than “perfect foresight” models: it solves each year sequentially, with optimized under uncertainty about future prevailing prices resource quantities. includes more types designed integrated assessments climate change. also differing carbon intensities costs production these types. We use calculate costs, emissions, total number scenarios. first explore effects altering three key input parameters. then flexibility formally two uncertainties simultaneously: endowment petroleum, taxes. Results indicate that emissions penalties are on order 5-20 GtC over next 50 years, results highly sensitive less values tax.