Climate change track in river floods in Europe

摘要: Abstract. A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase precipitation intensity, decrease snowpack and other climate changes) might already had an impact floods. However, no gauge-based evidence been found for a climate-driven, widespread magnitude/frequency during last decades. There are strong regional sub-regional variations trends. Moreover, it has not generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends anthropogenic change. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases frequency intensity heavy rainfall would contribute local floods, while less snowmelt flooding earlier spring flows snowmelt-fed rivers expected. there low confidence future changes magnitude resulting The impacts characteristics highly sensitive detailed nature those changes. Discussion projections hazard offered. Attention drawn considerable uncertainty - over decade or so, largely changed.