The analysis of accident precursors and near misses: Implications for risk assessment and risk management
作者： Vicki M. Bier , Ali Mosleh
DOI: 10.1016/0951-8320(90)90033-J
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摘要: Abstract This paper presents an analysis of accident precursors or ‘near misses’ (e.g. the space shuttle flights with damaged O-rings prior to Challenger disaster). The interpretation such events is often problematic, since ambiguous nature evidence in cases makes them subject widely divergent interpretations. Simple Bayesian provides a resolution this problem, showing that precursor almost always justifies increased rather than decreased estimates overall frequencies.
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sci-hub.se 参考文章(6)
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