On the inclusion of precursor and near miss events in quantitative risk assessments: A Bayesian point of view and a space shuttle example
作者： Stan Kaplan
DOI: 10.1016/0951-8320(90)90034-K
关键词:
摘要: Abstract This paper proposes the point of view that so-called ‘precursor’ events, although perhaps different in degree, are not kind from any other failure event. Stated alternately, event can be viewed as a precursor event; thus, Bayesian approach to risk assessment, evidence has occurred may, and indeed should, incorporated into analysis same way failure.
elsevier.com
sci-hub.se 参考文章(11)
George Apostolakis, Ali Mosleh, Expert Opinion and Statistical Evidence: An Application to Reactor Core Melt Frequency Nuclear Science and Engineering. ,vol. 70, pp. 135- 149 ,(1979) , 10.13182/NSE79-A19646
Stan Kaplan, James K. Liming, Andrew A. Dykes, Thomas C. Pritchett, Daniel Shaver, Edward P. Budo, Daniel M. Cunha, Peter A. Mihalkanin, A methodology for assessing the reliability of ‘boxes’ Reliability Engineering & System Safety. ,vol. 26, pp. 249- 269 ,(1989) , 10.1016/0951-8320(89)90014-8
M. L. Murray, D. B. Chambers, R. A. Knapp, S. Kaplan, Estimation of long-term risk from Canadian uranium mill tailings. Risk Analysis. ,vol. 7, pp. 287- 298 ,(1987) , 10.1111/J.1539-6924.1987.TB00464.X
Stan Kaplan, On a ``Two-Stage'' Bayesian Procedure for Determining Failure Rates from Experimental Data IEEE Power & Energy Magazine. ,vol. 102, pp. 195- 202 ,(1983) , 10.1109/TPAS.1983.318016
J.W. Minarick, The US NRC accident sequence precursor program: Present methods and findings Reliability Engineering & System Safety. ,vol. 27, pp. 23- 51 ,(1990) , 10.1016/0951-8320(90)90030-Q
Stanley Kaplan, On The Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment Risk Analysis. ,vol. 1, pp. 189- 196 ,(1981) , 10.1111/J.1539-6924.1981.TB01415.X
J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka, Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1969–1979 Springer, Boston, MA. pp. 5- 32 ,(1984) , 10.1007/978-1-4757-1818-8_1
Stanley Kaplan, B. John Garrick, On The Quantitative Definition of Risk Risk Analysis. ,vol. 1, pp. 11- 27 ,(1981) , 10.1111/J.1539-6924.1981.TB01350.X
H. W. Lewis, Precursors in Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability Nuclear Science and Engineering. ,vol. 86, pp. 404- 405 ,(1984) , 10.13182/NSE84-A18641
Stan Kaplan, On a ``Two-Stage'' Bayesian Procedure for Determining Failure Rates from Experimental Data IEEE Power & Energy Magazine. pp. 195- 202 ,(1983) , 10.1109/MPER.1983.5519588