A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

作者: R. Lorente-Plazas , J. P. Montávez , S. Jerez , J. J. Gómez-Navarro , P. Jiménez-Guerrero

DOI: 10.1002/JOC.4189

关键词:

摘要: The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels be assessed. In work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from dynamical downscaling experiment, with spatial resolution 10 km, covering Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, skill simulation evaluated comparing quality-tested observational (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local regional scales. results show that model able portray features over IP: annual cycles, roses, temporal variability, as well response different circulation types. addition, there significant added value respect driving conditions, especially in regions complex orography. some problems are evident, major drawback being systematic overestimation speed, which mainly attributed missrepresentation frictional forces. also lower along Mediterranean coast Pyrenees. second phase, high spatio-temporal pseudo-real used explore limitations database. It shown missing values do not affect characterisation climate IP, while length period (6 years) sufficient most regions, only few exceptions. distribution sampling schemes should enhanced improve correct assessment all IP regimes, particularly mountainous areas.

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