140 characters to victory?: Using Twitter to predict the UK 2015 General Election

摘要: This paper uses Twitter data to forecast the outcome of 2015 UK General Election. While a number empirical studies date have demonstrated striking levels accuracy in estimating election results using this new source, there been no genuine i.e. pre-election forecasts issued date. Furthermore widely varying methods and models employed with seemingly little agreement on core criteria required for an accurate estimate. We attempt address deficit our ‘baseline’ model prediction that incorporates sentiment analysis prior party support generate true parliament seat allocation. Our indicate hung Labour holding majority seats.