A priori assessment of reintroduction strategies for a native ungulate: using HexSim to guide release site selection

摘要: Reintroduction of native species to unoccupied portions their historical range is a common management strategy enhance the future viability animal populations. This approach has met with mixed success, due unforeseen impacts caused by human or other factors. Some these could potentially be mitigated through use anticipatory modeling coupled appropriate strategies prior release. As part an ongoing restoration program, we evaluated portion former tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes) in Central Valley California for potential reintroduction free-ranging herd. We used new spatially explicit population model (HexSim) analyze four different release scenarios. Each scenario corresponded location, and was compare simulated movement dynamics 25 years into future. also HexSim identify likely locations human–elk conflict. Population forecasts after 25-year period were highest (mean female size 169.6 per iteration) harmful barrier interactions lowest 8.6 at East Bear Creek site. These results indicate site as most result successful reintroduction, producing generating fewest conflicts. found useful tool this type planning believe that efforts benefit from modeling.